{"id":1779292579,"date":"2026-06-30T09:09:13","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T09:09:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/uncategorized-en-us\/returns-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-what-is-realistically-achievable\/"},"modified":"2026-09-24T10:54:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T10:54:06","slug":"returns-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-what-is-realistically-achievable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/returns-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-what-is-realistically-achievable\/","title":{"rendered":"Returns in the Altersvorsorgedepot: what is realistically achievable"},"content":{"rendered":"<article class=\"article\">\n<p class=\"avd-lead\"> The return is the percentage earnings of an investment per year. In the <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/altersvorsorgedepot\/\">Altersvorsorgedepot<\/a> it depends heavily on the variant you choose: equity ETFs deliver 6 to 8% over the long term, guarantee products 1 to 4%. Over 30 years the difference adds up to 50% or more in final balance. <\/p>\n<aside class=\"avd-callout tldr\">\n<p><strong>The key points at a glance:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Equity ETFs historically 6 to 8% p.a.<\/li>\n<li>An 80% contribution guarantee lowers the return to 3 to 5%<\/li>\n<li>Gross return minus costs minus inflation = real return<\/li>\n<li>Default standard product with ETFs: 5 to 7% p.a. can be expected<\/li>\n<li>The choice of variant is the biggest lever<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/aside>\n<section id=\"was-ist\">\n<h2>What is the return?<\/h2>\n<p> Return is the ratio of earnings to capital invested, expressed as a percentage per period. In retirement provision it is usually stated as an <strong>annual return<\/strong> (p.a., per annum). <\/p>\n<p> If you invest \u20ac1,000 and have \u20ac1,060 after one year, you have generated a return of 6%. Over long periods, <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/compound-interest-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-why-starting-early-changes-everything\/\">compound interest effect<\/a> takes the leading role; what then counts is no longer the individual annual gain but the <em>average<\/em> return. <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"brutto-netto\">\n<h2>Gross and net return, the decisive difference<\/h2>\n<p> Advertising and model calculations usually quote the gross return, which is pure market performance. What actually reaches the saver in the end is the <strong>net return<\/strong>: <\/p>\n<table class=\"avd-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Figure<\/th>\n<th>Value<\/th>\n<th>Example<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Gross return<\/td>\n<td>e.g. 7% p.a.<\/td>\n<td>MSCI World, historical<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u2212 <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/reduction-in-yield-riy-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-what-you-need-to-know\/\">Reduction in yield<\/a><\/td>\n<td>\u22120.3 to \u22121.8%<\/td>\n<td>depending on the provider<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>= pre-tax net return<\/td>\n<td>5.2 to 6.7%<\/td>\n<td>what ends up in the securities account<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u2212 Inflation<\/td>\n<td>\u22122% long-term average<\/td>\n<td>loss of purchasing power<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>= real return<\/td>\n<td>3.2 to 4.7%<\/td>\n<td>genuine growth in wealth<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p> With deferred taxation in retirement, tax is added on top (see <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/deferred-taxation-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot\/\">Deferred taxation<\/a>). Despite all deductions, the Altersvorsorgedepot still delivers a better return than a savings book or an instant-access savings account. <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"avd-callout zwischenfazit\">\n<p><strong>Which return is realistic in the AVD?<\/strong><br \/>ETF returns have historically been 6 to 8% p.a., and that is also the realistic expectation in the AVD.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section id=\"historische-werte\">\n<h2>Historical returns compared<\/h2>\n<table class=\"avd-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Type of investment<\/th>\n<th>\u00d8 gross return p.a.<\/th>\n<th>Fluctuation<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>MSCI World (equity ETF)<\/td>\n<td>~ 7.5%<\/td>\n<td>\u221240% to +40% per year<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>FTSE All-World<\/td>\n<td>~ 7%<\/td>\n<td>similar to MSCI World<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Government bonds DE\/EU<\/td>\n<td>~ 2%<\/td>\n<td>low<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Mixed funds 60\/40<\/td>\n<td>~ 4.5%<\/td>\n<td>moderate<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Instant-access savings (average since 2010)<\/td>\n<td>~ 0.7%<\/td>\n<td>none<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Inflation Germany<\/td>\n<td>~ 2%<\/td>\n<td>not directly comparable<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p class=\"small muted\">Sources: MSCI, Deutsche Bundesbank, Federal Statistical Office. Figures rounded, long-term averages over 30 years.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"varianten\">\n<h2>Return expectation by AVD variant<\/h2>\n<table class=\"avd-table\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Variant<\/th>\n<th>Expected return p.a.<\/th>\n<th>Example final balance after 30 yrs*<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>Pure equity ETF (0% guarantee)<\/td>\n<td>6 to 8%<\/td>\n<td>~ \u20ac100,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>80% contribution guarantee<\/td>\n<td>3 to 5%<\/td>\n<td>~ \u20ac65,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>100% contribution guarantee<\/td>\n<td>1 to 3%<\/td>\n<td>~ \u20ac45,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>Default standard product (passive ETFs, low costs)<\/td>\n<td>5 to 7%<\/td>\n<td>~ \u20ac85,000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p class=\"small muted\">*Assumption: \u20ac100 own contribution per month plus \u20ac540 basic allowance per year.<\/p>\n<p> The choice of variant is the biggest lever for the return. Anyone with 20+ years ahead of them should critically question the <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/contribution-guarantee-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-optional-instead-of-mandatory\/\">contribution guarantee<\/a> ; on average it costs \u20ac1,000 to \u20ac1,500 in return per year of investment. <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section id=\"risiko\">\n<h2>Return and risk belong together<\/h2>\n<p> A higher expected return always means a higher short-term fluctuation risk too. Equity markets can lose 30 to 50% in a crisis. Over long periods, however, every period of 15+ years has shown a positive real return (MSCI World, since the index began in 1970). <\/p>\n<p> If you are shortly before the start of retirement, you should gradually shift into safe investments. For this, many providers offer a <strong>lifecycle model<\/strong> (glidepath) that automatically reduces the equity share as you get older. <\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"avd-faq\" id=\"faq\">\n<h2>Frequently asked questions about returns<\/h2>\n<details>\n<summary>What return does my provider promise?<\/summary>\n<p>Providers may only present returns as a historical model calculation, never as a promise. Look for the note &#8220;historical performance&#8221; and the assumptions on which it is based.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<details>\n<summary>Is a 6% return realistic?<\/summary>\n<p>With a broadly diversified equity ETF over the long term, yes. Over short periods the return can be far below (or above) that.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<details>\n<summary>What happens in a long market slump?<\/summary>\n<p>Even after the worst 20-year periods (e.g. Japan 1989 to 2009), a globally diversified portfolio has produced slightly positive earnings. A home-biased portfolio, by contrast, can stay in the red for a long time.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<details>\n<summary>How much do costs affect the return?<\/summary>\n<p>Strongly. One percent more in reduction in yield cuts the final balance after 30 years by 20 to 30%. Details at <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/reduction-in-yield-riy-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-what-you-need-to-know\/\">Reduction in yield<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<details>\n<summary>Do the allowances earn returns too?<\/summary>\n<p>Yes. The basic allowance and child allowance are credited directly to the securities account and earn returns from that point on.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<details>\n<summary>How does inflation affect this?<\/summary>\n<p>It reduces the purchasing power of the final balance. At 2% inflation, \u20ac100,000 in 30 years corresponds to only about \u20ac55,000 of today&#8217;s purchasing power. That is why you need returns above the inflation rate.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"avd-callout zwischenfazit\">\n<p><strong>What counts for me in the end?<\/strong><br \/>The net return after costs and inflation is the decisive figure. Many advertising brochures calculate this too optimistically.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"avd-weiter\">\n<h2>Keep calculating and reading<\/h2>\n<p class=\"avd-weiter__rechner\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/altersvorsorgedepot-calculator-extended\/\">Altersvorsorgedepot calculator Plus<\/a><\/strong> \u2014 calculate the subsidy, tax advantage and final balance for your own situation.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"avd-weiter__links\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/inflation-and-purchasing-power-what-your-securities-account-will-really-be-worth-in-30-years\/\">Inflation and purchasing power<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/reduction-in-yield-riy-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-what-you-need-to-know\/\">Reduction in yield<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/contribution-guarantee-in-the-altersvorsorgedepot-optional-instead-of-mandatory\/\">contribution guarantee<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"avd-weiter__lexikon\">All terms at a glance: <a href=\"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/what-is\/altersvorsorgedepot-glossary-all-terms-from-a-to-z\/\">Glossary from A to Z<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"avd-sources\">\n<h2>Sources<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bundesbank.de\/de\/service\/statistik-suche\" rel=\"external nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Deutsche Bundesbank, interest rate statistics<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.destatis.de\/DE\/Themen\/Wirtschaft\/Preise\/Verbraucherpreisindex\/_inhalt.html\" rel=\"external nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Statistical Office, inflation<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.test.de\/Altersvorsorgedepot-4910361-0\/\" rel=\"external nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Stiftung Warentest, Altersvorsorgedepot<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/section>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What return the Altersvorsorgedepot can deliver: realistic expectations for ETFs, mixed portfolios and guarantee products, long-term ranges and worked examples.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_metasync_otto_title":"","_metasync_otto_description":"","_metasync_otto_keywords":"","_metasync_otto_og_title":"","_metasync_otto_og_description":"","_metasync_otto_twitter_title":"","_metasync_otto_twitter_description":"","rank_math_title":"","rank_math_description":"","_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"","_aioseo_title":"","_aioseo_description":"","_metasync_seo_title":"","_metasync_seo_desc":"","_metasync_breadcrumb_title":"","_metasync_primary_category":0,"_metasync_primary_product_cat":0,"_metasync_otto_disabled":"","_metasync_hreflang":"","_metasync_plugin_sync_ts":"","_metasync_robots_advanced":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[68],"tags":[69,88,70,75,71],"class_list":["post-1779292579","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-what-is","tag-altersvorsorgedepot","tag-compound-interest","tag-contribution-guarantee","tag-etf","tag-reduction-in-yield"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1779292579","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1779292579"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1779292579\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1779292579"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1779292579"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/altersvorsorgedepot-anbieter-vergleich.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1779292579"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}