Study: 4.5 million Altersvorsorgedepot accounts as early as 2027 – what that means for savers
Not a single Altersvorsorgedepot (Germany’s state-subsidized retirement investment account) has been opened yet, but expectations for the launch are already high. A current market study expects millions of people to sign up in the very first year. Here we look at what is behind the figures and what they mean for your own decision.
From 1 January 2027, the Altersvorsorgedepot will replace the Riester pension as the state-subsidized form of private retirement provision. The market research institute Sirius Campus has now examined how strongly the market will respond. We put the findings into context for you, with no product recommendation, just facts.
In brief: The study “Altersvorsorge im Aufbruch” by the institute Sirius Campus (supported by the retirement provision specialist Aeiforia) forecasts, for the launch of the Altersvorsorgedepot in 2027, around 4.5 million contracts. If providers market it intensively, the authors consider even up to 10 million contracts possible. The basis is an online survey of 1,013 people eligible for the subsidy in April 2026
The key points at a glance
- Of the roughly 44 million people eligible for the subsidy in Germany, already 58 percent know about the Altersvorsorgedepot.
- One third of those who know the product can imagine signing up. From this the study calculates 4.5 million contracts for 2027.
- If savers contribute an average of around €100 per year, that plus allowances gives an annual savings volume of about €7 billion.
- Despite the higher return potential, the majority prefer security: only 9 percent would invest without a guarantee, 44 percent choose an 80 percent guarantee, 32 percent the full capital guarantee.
- Up to €64.8 billion from existing Riester contracts could be shifted into the new system.
What the forecast is based on
Under the Retirement Provision Reform Act (2026), a maximum of two Altersvorsorgedepot accounts per person are permitted at the same time. Into each contract you can pay up to €6,840 per year. With two contracts, your maximum annual contribution volume is therefore €13,680.
With a third contract, the legal position changes fundamentally. It no longer counts as a certified retirement provision contract and is therefore not state-subsidized. The two-contract limit is thus a hard statutory barrier, not a recommendation.
The interest is there, but awareness has its limits
That 58 percent of those eligible already know about the Altersvorsorgedepot is remarkable for a product that cannot even be bought yet. The attention stems above all from the reporting around the legislative process. At the same time, the flip side is this: four out of ten people eligible for the subsidy have never heard of it.
For you, as someone who is already informing yourself, that is rather good news. If you know the rules early, you make a considered decision at launch instead of having to fight your way through the offers only when signing up. How the Altersvorsorgedepot works in detail is explained in our article How does the Altersvorsorgedepot work?.
The majority want security, not a full equity allocation
One finding of the study is surprising in view of the often emphasized return potential: only 9 percent of respondents would invest their money without any guarantee. The clear majority opt for security. 44 percent prefer an 80 percent guarantee with moderate return potential, 32 percent want their paid-in capital fully protected.
This reveals a tension that many savers know: the head knows that a long investment horizon evens out fluctuations, yet the gut still calls for security. Both routes are possible within the Altersvorsorgedepot. Which contribution guarantee suits you depends above all on how many years you have left until retirement. You will find guidance on this in our article Advantages and disadvantages of the Altersvorsorgedepot.
In short: Higher return potential, yes, but with protection. Only a small minority want to do without a guarantee entirely. The Altersvorsorgedepot allows for both attitudes.
Riester comes under pressure
The study also quantifies how much capital could be set in motion. Up to €64.8 billion and thus more than a quarter of the roughly €225 billion Riester portfolio could move into the new subsidy system. For existing customers, this is above all a reminder to review their own situation.
A switch is not automatic and does not make sense for everyone. Existing Riester contracts continue with full subsidies. Whether a transfer into the Altersvorsorgedepot is worthwhile for you depends on the contract, the costs and the remaining term. You will find the most important points on our page Riester switch.
What you should take away from the figures
Forecasts are not guarantees, and a study is no substitute for your own decision. Even so, something practical can be derived from the findings. The rush at launch is likely to be large, and with it the competition for customers. For you that is an opportunity: where many providers court the same savers, pressure builds on costs and terms.
This is exactly where the difference lies between a good contract and a mediocre one. The study assumes an average contribution of around €1,100 per year. Over decades it makes a big difference whether that money sits in a low-cost securities account or in an expensive product. If you inform yourself beforehand and compare the terms, you will do considerably better in this first wave.
Conclusion
The Sirius Campus study paints a clear picture: interest in the Altersvorsorgedepot is high, the 2027 launch will probably come with millions of contracts, and even the Riester portfolio is starting to move. In the end, what counts for you is less the big number than the question of what fits your situation. If you know the rules now and compare the terms at launch, you have a clear advantage.
The first providers launch on 1 January 2027. We will let you know as soon as the products are live so that you can compare right away.
Sources: Sirius Campus, “Prognose zum Altersvorsorge-Depot: 4,5 Mio. Abschlüsse in 2027” (siriuscampus.de); Federal Ministry of Finance, FAQ on the reform of private retirement provision
How many Altersvorsorgedepot accounts are expected in 2027?
The study “Altersvorsorge im Aufbruch” by Sirius Campus forecasts around 4.5 million contracts for the launch year 2027. If providers actively approach their customers and market the product intensively, the authors consider up to 10 million contracts possible.
Who is behind the forecast?
The survey comes from the market research institute Sirius Campus, with expert support from the retirement provision specialist Aeiforia. It is based on an online survey of 1,013 representatively selected people eligible for the subsidy in April 2026.
How reliable is a figure like this?
This is a forecast, not a guarantee. The study does calculate cautiously, however: it deducts the so-called intention-behavior gap, that is, the empirical finding that only about one third of stated intentions are actually acted on. The 4.5 million figure is therefore calculated conservatively rather than optimistically.
Do most savers really want to invest in ETFs?
According to the study, not without protection. Only 9 percent of respondents would invest without a guarantee. 44 percent prefer an 80 percent guarantee, 32 percent a full capital guarantee. The need for security is therefore high, even though the Altersvorsorgedepot also allows a pure ETF investment.
What does the study mean for my Riester contract
The authors estimate that up to €64.8 billion could move from Riester contracts into the new system. A switch is not a must, though. Existing contracts continue with full subsidies. Whether a transfer is worthwhile for you should be checked individually.
Lawyer & financial market expert · AVD Anbieter Vergleich
Rolf Henning Hackel is a qualified lawyer who has spent more than 22 years as a board member and managing director at various software providers to the financial industry, and as a founder himself. As a thorough market expert he knows not only the different providers but also the financial industry’s products, their strengths and weaknesses, and the regulatory framework around them. At AVD Anbieter Vergleich he writes about the new Altersvorsorgedepot and explains subsidies, providers and return potential in plain language — independently and free of advertising.
